Something broke in the usual rhythm.
The numbers show it clearly. Buyer demand dropped 8% compared to last year, with sales agreed down 3%. The timing stands out.
The usual pre-Christmas slowdown arrived six to eight weeks early.
The Budget Effect
October’s budget spooked buyers. The Chancellor raised stamp duty on second homes and investment properties from 3% to 5%, effective October 31st. First-time buyer thresholds revert to £300,000 from £425,000 at the end of March 2025.
Properties above £500,000 saw the biggest drop. Southern England felt this most, where higher-value properties dominate. London sales timelines stretched to 45 days, 20% longer than last year.
The premium segment collapsed most. London residential sales above £5 million tumbled 23% in the first three quarters. No homes sold above £100 million in 2024, breaking a four-year pattern.
The Contradiction
Almost 350,000 homes, valued at over £100 billion, sit in the sales pipeline. The largest since May 2021.
A slowdown paired with a record pipeline means hesitation, not collapse. Buyers paused, but they didn’t disappear.
The Regional Split
Geography tells a different story.
Northern Ireland led with 7.1% year-on-year price growth. Scotland followed at 4.4%. Northern England posted 4.9% gains. Sales agreed climbed 3% in Scotland and 4% in Yorkshire and the Humber.
Meanwhile, Wales dropped 9%, the South East fell 8%, and London declined 5%.
The divide reflects affordability gaps. Northern regions saw prices rise just 19% to 41% since 2010, while household incomes grew 58%. That creates headroom for continued growth where southern markets stagnated.
Construction Impact
Southern developers face longer waits and nervous buyers in the premium segment. Northern markets keep moving with stronger foundations.
That £100 billion pipeline matters. It represents projects waiting to complete, materials orders on hold, and subcontractors watching calendars. When policy questions clear, that backlog converts to work. Northern projects benefit from affordability tailwinds. Southern developments require adjusted timelines and pricing to match buyer hesitation.
The early freeze wasn’t random. It came from policy changes and regional gaps building for years.
The question now is how fast spring arrives.